• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1984

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Nov 29 23:12:43 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 292312
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292312=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-300045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1984
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0512 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

    Areas affected...northern and central Louisiana northeastward to
    northern Mississippi

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 572...

    Valid 292312Z - 300045Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 572 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe-weather risk continues across the WW area, with
    greatest risk for significant tornadoes evident with supercells
    crossing northern Louisiana at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a broken band of
    severe/supercell storms extending from near the Sabine River over
    far eastern Texas, northeastward into northwestern Alabama -- within
    Tornado Watch 572. The environment remains quite supportive of
    ongoing tornado risk, given the moist/unstable and favorably sheared pre-frontal environment. However, rotation/supercell
    characteristics with several of the storms have to some degree
    remained rather transient. Still, a few longer-lived/sustained
    supercells continue, and expect additional/more organized evolution
    over the next couple of hours.

    The most substantial of these better-organized rotating cells are
    moving east-northeastward across northern Louisiana. One of these,
    now crossing northern Tensas Parish, should cross the Mississippi
    River in the Vicksburg vicinity over the next half hour or so. A
    second of these longer-lived supercells is crossing southern Winn
    Parish, while a third has organized over northern Sabine County in
    East Texas, and will move into Sabine Parish in Louisiana over the
    next half hour. All three of the aforementioned storms appear
    capable of producing tornadoes over the next 1 to 2 hours.=20=20

    Finally, a separate/potentially tornadic supercell continues to
    organize/evolve over southern Jefferson Davis County in Mississippi,
    well south of the main convective band. This storm has produced a
    tornado within the past half hour or so, and will move out of the
    southeastern portion of Tornado Watch 572 and into newly issued
    Tornado Watch 574.

    ..Goss.. 11/29/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_RD7gHzkbJutj99tHolF6ay8dx83lm5antydnh8Q5f2xtWPDMfXtI7viNviGtX2Oo2MahnV7Q= m8TjAKsuljmunPZcGo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31509375 31799347 33938905 33818857 32068878 31258929
    31189222 31509375=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 13 20:04:21 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 132004
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132003=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-132200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1984
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0303 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

    Areas affected...the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 132003Z - 132200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms across the western Texas
    Panhandle and northeast New Mexico will migrate into a more unstable
    air mass in the coming hours. As this occurs, the potential for
    severe wind will increase. Watch issuance is possible in the coming
    hours.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, GOES visible imagery and
    regional radars have shown deepening cumulus and the initial stages
    of convective initiation across northeast New Mexico into the Texas
    Panhandle along a diffuse lee surface trough and a southward-surging
    cold front. Most storms are developing on the periphery of richer boundary-layer moisture where dewpoints have mixed out to the upper
    50s and low 60s, and LCLs are estimated to be between 2-3 km. A
    combination of dry, well-mixed boundary-layer conditions and modest
    shear throughout the column should favor outflow-dominant storms
    with the potential for strong to severe downburst winds.
    Re-development along outflow boundaries appears probable given
    continued downstream destabilization (diminishing MLCIN is noted in
    recent RAP mesoanalyses with MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg across
    western OK). Consequently, the severe wind potential is expected to
    spread to the east/northeast through the late afternoon and evening
    hours. A more localized severe hail threat may materialize across
    the northern Panhandle region into southwest KS where mid-level flow
    is slightly stronger, resulting in more elongated hodographs,
    however, this potential may be modulated by a more clustered storm
    mode along the cold front. Watch issuance is possible in the coming
    hours to address these concerns.

    ..Moore/Guyer.. 08/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Rh2vzhjFni7CPY_wopFi9LTsx-bLLIVFCKL3urFfQaW4t75c3GDnsR6uUkUmXorbJOYR0Wqq= 24w7QYhmRvx0stwmfg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 35519886 34919951 34689990 34560023 34500184 34540220
    34750245 35090267 36270263 36500248 36990140 37130078
    37139889 36949862 36709840 36159849 35519886=20


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