• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1982

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Nov 29 21:36:09 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 292136
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292135=20
    ALZ000-292330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1982
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0335 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of northern and central Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 292135Z - 292330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A downstream tornado watch is likely for parts of
    northern/central Alabama as severe storms move out of MS.

    DISCUSSION...Some intensification has been noted in storms occurring
    in central Mississippi. At 328 PM CST, a tornado was confirmed near
    Vaiden, MS. These storms will continue northeastward and eventually
    impact parts of northern/central Alabama. Low 70s F temperatures,
    upper 60s F dewpoints, and subtly backed surface winds ahead of
    these storms will continue to promote a threat for tornadoes, some
    of which could be strong. It is likely a downstream tornado watch
    will need to be issued for parts of northern/central Alabama later
    this afternoon. The primary questions will be how far north and east
    the risk will exist. Earlier elevated storms have cooled the airmass
    in northern Alabama while moisture has been slower to return
    northward from around Birmingham eastward.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 11/29/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8B_Djtal6FfO5J_8EfGi6a9YvHHA2AzEMjll0vaPBnc5LJXlf7k1tpqf7wtrAhjhWgwb0EyXU= Tatu9yJP70jFrcq-F4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...

    LAT...LON 32508829 34228816 34468807 34548745 34338689 33538653
    32418727 32388797 32508829=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 13 19:45:23 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 131945
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131944=20
    KSZ000-132145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1982
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0244 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

    Areas affected...central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 131944Z - 132145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation is expected by the late afternoon
    hours over central Kansas. While timing remains uncertain, a watch
    issuance will likely be needed given a favorable thermodynamic and
    kinematic environment for severe storms.

    DISCUSSION...19 UTC surface analysis places a surface low to the north/northeast of the Dodge City, KS area with an attendant cold
    (warm) front draped to the southwest (east/northeast). Warm sector
    temperatures in the vicinity of the low have risen to the upper 80s
    over the past hour, which should be approaching adequate
    temperatures to erode mixed-layer inhibition per RAP forecast
    soundings. This idea is supported by recent visible satellite
    imagery, which has show a stead increase in coverage and vertical
    depth of cumulus along the warm front and ahead of a diffuse surface
    trough. While convective initiation does not appear immediately
    imminent, these trends suggest that thunderstorm development is
    likely by late afternoon as destabilization and lift along the
    frontal boundaries continue.=20

    MLCAPE values should approach 2000-3000 J/kg by the time of CI, and
    35-45 knot mid-level flow atop relatively weak boundary-layer winds
    will support adequate deep-layer shear for organized convection. The
    zonal flow regime aloft will favor largely along-boundary deep-layer
    shear and initial storm motion vectors, favoring initially discrete
    cells along the cold front and a tendency for upscale growth into
    clusters along the warm front. Initial cells along the warm front
    may realize ambient low-level vorticity present along the boundary,
    and become sufficiently organized to pose a tornado threat prior to
    upscale growth. Otherwise, a large hail/severe wind threat should
    materialize across much of central KS. The timing of watch issuance
    remains uncertain, but will likely be needed by the late afternoon
    hours across central KS.

    ..Moore/Guyer.. 08/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8CSyDRfETJ6DhQxdj2pzKJpWAuWpV2g-ud8rEYA3j88ngSjWrPTPQeisp73KDnB96BjIH6aF3= nf_v0sl3ToeqdCG2jM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 37099907 37029958 37080020 37170074 37500087 38560029
    39559978 39929909 39989794 39279654 38949620 38569632
    37739759 37299846 37099907=20


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