• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1981

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Nov 29 20:28:38 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 292028
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292028=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-292230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1981
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0228 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

    Areas affected...northeast LA into central MS

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 572...

    Valid 292028Z - 292230Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 572 continues.

    SUMMARY...Increasing potential for severe thunderstorms and
    tornadoes exists across northeast LA into central MS over the next
    few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis indicates a corridor of
    enhanced severe thunderstorm and tornado potential is in place
    across northeast LA into central MS. This area has experienced
    pockets of broken clouds and stronger heating, resulting in
    temperatures around 75-79 F amid surface dewpoints in the 68-71 F
    range. This is aiding a local max in low-level instability and STP
    values have increased between 3 to 4. Regional VWP data continue to
    show enlarged, favorably curved hodographs and 0-1 km SRH values
    greater than 250 m2/s2. As convection spreads east/northeast into
    this area, increasing potential for tornadic supercells will exist.

    ..Leitman.. 11/29/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Cf8Jxy72J5YBsZ-6hUXcB0WcNGq3zzVfUVdyEtq9ugdaRUq7VB1ZpevsJASzyKOERfIec2Qb= 8i1RjE_j-PZ8PVMXjM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32029197 32819126 33299046 33539002 33548984 33518967
    33348954 33048955 32528967 32128986 31759024 31649051
    31559116 31639173 31769189 32029197=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 13 16:53:50 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 131653
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131653=20
    KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-131900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1981
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1153 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

    Areas affected...Mid-Mississippi River Valley into the Tennessee
    Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 131653Z - 131900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...An MCS moving across the mid-Mississippi River Valley will
    likely see new re-intensification through the early afternoon hours.
    This will pose a threat for damaging to severe winds downstream.
    Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...A lingering MCS moving out of northern AR has gradually
    become outflow dominant per KNQA radar imagery over the past few
    hours. However, over the past 30-60 minutes new convective towers
    are noted in IR imagery and lightning data, developing along/just
    behind the gust front as it approaches the MS River. Further
    re-development and/or re-intensification of the line appears
    probable through the early afternoon as the MCS approaches a
    regional buoyancy maximum over northern MS to western TN (MLCAPE
    values between 2000-3000 J/kg and rising as temperatures warm into
    the low 90s). Deep-layer flow over the region is meager with the
    KNQA VWP and 12 UTC BNA sounding sampling mid-level winds between
    20-30 knots. This suggests that storm organization/longevity may be
    limited, but convectively-augmented (and poorly-sampled)
    mid/upper-level winds in the vicinity of the attendant MCV over
    northeast AR and the MO bootheel may support adequate deep-layer
    shear for a more organized/persistent severe threat. While
    confidence in favorable kinematics is somewhat low, a downstream
    damaging wind threat appears likely across western to middle TN and
    adjacent portions of KY, MS, and AL given the ample buoyancy. Trends
    will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

    ..Moore/Guyer.. 08/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8RsrRz_0op3UMVKrKsmfOx_OC60Z4PZnxNjxnjJ2ZUCZZV14bggzYU_74-HaKa_aKYB9ei225= 2SqVbR7Va_NegMagRE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 35399021 35818975 36438950 36988953 37358666 36918618
    35318637 34918673 34788744 34908968 35009007 35399021=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)