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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1977

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Nov 29 16:57:08 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 291657
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291656=20
    ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-291900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1977
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1056 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

    Areas affected...Northern Mississippi...northern Alabama...far
    southern Middle Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 291656Z - 291900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail will be possible with elevated
    storms early this afternoon. No watch is expected for this activity.
    More intense activity is expected later this afternoon/evening.

    DISCUSSION...As moisture rapidly returns north and east, a few
    elevated storms have developed along the leading edge. Current storm
    motions may keep this activity at least loosely tied to modest
    elevated instability. Given the strongly sheared environment, some
    potential for marginally severe hail will exist with the more
    intense storms as they move northeast. It does not appear likely
    that enough downstream destabilization will occur to support
    surface-based updrafts. With that said, strong/damaging wind gust
    potential is low.

    No watch is anticipated for this activity. Stronger storms are
    expected to impact some of these same areas later in the afternoon
    and evening.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 11/29/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6hpDsOY-SmCn06-PmZ03DYkLkO4zMZfsKLYbT-txrZcdqXY8kXxSwQ6d-fCmaMV5du-hjHUpm= EhsFVFUiuyk5nUrxyQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

    LAT...LON 34368716 34068856 33998949 34098975 34318995 34778970
    35148907 35478680 35438612 34908603 34368716=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 13 02:10:46 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 130210
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130210=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-130415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1977
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0910 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

    Areas affected...southwestern through south central South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637...

    Valid 130210Z - 130415Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms posing some risk for strong wind gusts may
    remain possible into the 10-11 PM CDT time frame, north of the
    central Nebraska/South Dakota state border vicinity. However, it is
    not clear that this will require a new severe weather watch.

    DISCUSSION...Downstream of a short wave trough digging into eastern
    Montana, warm advection driven convection continues to gradually
    spread across and east-southeast of the Black Hills vicinity.=20
    Scattered stronger storms are generally focused on the
    southern/southwestern periphery of this regime, from the Pine Ridge
    Reservation vicinity into the Rapid City area, supported by a
    continuing inflow of moist unstable boundary-layer air characterized
    by sizable CAPE. However, as boundary-layer cooling progresses, the
    risk for severe hail seems likely to gradually wane during the next
    few hours.=20=20

    It is possible that a strengthening southerly jet around 850 mb
    could still focus an area of stronger lingering convection across
    the Mellette, Todd, and Tripp county vicinity, which could be
    accompanied by a period of increasing strong wind potential.=20
    However, it is not clear that this will require a new severe weather
    watch.

    ..Kerr.. 08/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_rVpP4y4nIOc4kMg86-xosaT5vlL2ZpckaS0E6eX51qqqYWcoI1WRdBTGoavUMDFyYJqH2JwS= cjuVGF76ToAtbp2_Sk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 44380289 43770193 43690030 43199921 42860018 42900175
    43040253 43760362 44380289=20


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