• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1976

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Nov 29 15:45:37 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 291545
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291545=20
    MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-292145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1976
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0945 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern Minnesota into northwest
    Wisconsin

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 291545Z - 292145Z

    SUMMARY...Areas of 1 inch per hour snow rates are possible in
    eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin this afternoon. The
    heaviest snowfall rates should occur from 12 PM to 4 PM CST.

    DISCUSSION...A band of snow within the Upper Midwest has produced
    generally light to moderate snowfall rates from southwestern
    Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin. Recent observations within
    the last hour near the Twin Cities indicate snowfall rates of 1 inch
    per hour are occurring. This broad area of snow is being driven by
    850-700 mb frontogenesis. Through the afternoon, the upper trough
    over the northern Plains is expected to become more negatively
    tilted as it progresses into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
    regions. At the surface, a low currently in northwest Missouri
    should track northeastward and deepen. This should act to increase
    the frontogenetic forcing and lead to snowfall rates of 1 inch per
    hour, particularly within locally heavier snow bands. Heavier
    snowfall rates will move from southwest to northeast along with the
    better low/mid-level ascent from about 12 PM to 4 PM CST.

    ..Wendt.. 11/29/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8juwxVDWtVMQKLxpvGvDdao0xreUFOR2Ah6XD8NTmsPN1mg9BaK0p4TENJ6B5FOEIx0K68jCn= bu0dcN2mNukK6LkDtE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 45009388 46029320 46809251 47489153 47539062 47139000
    46308993 45059125 44269203 43489320 43549365 44109440
    45009388=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 13 01:02:44 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 130102
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130102=20
    NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-130230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1976
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0802 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern PA...northern NJ...western NY/CT

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 638...

    Valid 130102Z - 130230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 638
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts and isolated hail will
    continue this evening.

    DISCUSSION...As of 0055, a couple clusters of strong to severe
    storms were ongoing over parts of southern NY and eastern PA
    respectively. These storms have produced several reports of wind
    damage and hail over the last couple of hours. Recent HRRR and radar
    trends suggest these storms should remain capable of isolated wind
    damage and hail into western portions of CT tonight.

    Farther south into southeastern PA, new convective development was
    noted west of Allentown. Likely in response to an increase in
    synoptic support from the approaching trough, these storms may
    continue to intensify and pose an isolated severe risk into central
    NJ over the next couple of hours. 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50
    kt of deep-layer shear would support a risk for damaging gusts and
    isolated hail if storms are able to organize. However, with the loss
    of diurnal heating, there remains some uncertainty on if storms will
    be able to mature prior to nocturnal stabilization.

    ..Lyons.. 08/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_vBATnigWWG_9R9opq2s3OjC-NFCxFaE_xxIk0i7_mlAo-Va95nZm4QiQEVEsNNJ37GJtqd6N= lN88UnG-_TAfd1a1Q4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

    LAT...LON 40127529 40487588 40867594 41367556 42117456 42267396
    42337359 42327323 42237292 41797283 41417291 40917342
    40687367 40557383 40337406 40107433 39977464 40047526
    40127529=20


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