ACUS11 KWNS 190316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190315=20
NYZ000-190715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1965
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022

Areas affected...portions of extreme southwest New York

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 190315Z - 190715Z

SUMMARY...Occasional bouts of heavy snow, perhaps briefly exceeding
1 inch/hr, remains possible with a primary snow band this evening,
which is shifting northward towards Buffalo, NY. Areas of heaviest
snow should be confined to about 30 miles inland from Lake Erie.

DISCUSSION...A lingering snow band continues to promote moderate to
heavy snow to areas immediately east of the Lake Erie shoreline. The
approach of a very subtle mid-level impulse, currently over the
Great lakes, is contributing to increased cyclonic upper flow and
slight backing of the vertical wind field, supporting a gradual
northward shift of the snow band. Though deep-layer ascent should
weaken across western NY, 8 C/km low-level lapse rates overspread by
a near-saturated dendritic growth zone should continue to support
moderate to heavy snow across the Buffalo, NY area through at least
early tonight. While there are some indications that this snow band
is weakening, it is not out of the question for occasional heavy
bursts of snow (perhaps briefly exceeding 1 inch/hr rates) to occur
near the Lake Erie shoreline. As such, areas closest to the shore
may experience brief periods of significantly reduced visibility and
hazardous road conditions.

..Squitieri.. 11/19/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4EtjWMxEm9MG7XDG0Dyj0BpE6OMh6AODeFAqpW2LZThPITFiAU8MdZyLxzpnagMy_HghID04_= R6zKJTsmyNMD4xmz8Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...

LAT...LON 42957905 43167896 43337873 43397840 43357802 43237791
43047788 42917796 42847815 42777843 42827894 42957905=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 121614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121614=20
KYZ000-121815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1965
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Areas affected...eastern KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 121614Z - 121815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Localized damaging wind gusts and hail are possible into
the early afternoon as thunderstorms move across the area. A watch
is unlikely in the short term.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing strong thunderstorms are currently affecting
portions of central/eastern KY. One supercell in particular -- now
weakening over north-central KY -- produced hail and damaging wind
gusts during the last couple of hours. A gradual uptick in
thunderstorm coverage and potentially damaging wind gusts as well as
hail are possible during the next few hours.

These storms are currently traversing a buoyancy axis extending north-northeastward through middle TN and eastern KY. Located along
the southern periphery of a belt of stronger mid-level flow, slight
upper-level difluence amidst a warm-air advection regime is
supporting additional updraft development ahead of ongoing storms.
Additional convective invigoration is also possible along a
congealed outflow boundary stretching from northern KY southwestward
into western TN. Short-term forecast profiles indicate a favorable
environment for updraft maintenance, including around 1500-2000 J/kg
of MLCAPE (diminishing with northward extent) with relatively
straight, long hodographs in the cloud layer. Some inhibition may
remain across the area, but it appears to be eroding given surface
temperatures warming into the low 80s and hints of a Cu field
forming beneath the cirrus canopy. Relatively moist profiles and
steep mid-level lapse rates (around 8 C/km) could support locally
damaging winds and instances of larger hail. The overall threat
should be somewhat tempered by limited boundary-layer heating (due
to an expanding cirrus canopy) and relatively weak flow in the
lowest few km AGL. A watch is not anticipated in the short term, but
trends will continue to be monitored into the early afternoon.

..Flournoy/Smith.. 08/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Nb1u88qhUhk8Xi6kcR0UFV19JUde-wINvxImMAySWL3bRYDcC53hW_iOdjb6nXBISUm177Ga= 4eu0KsxdsAY16FrJYg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...LMK...

LAT...LON 37288508 37708482 38048433 38148361 37998292 37598267
37028288 36688351 36598406 36638489 36638548 36848557
37288508=20


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