ACUS11 KWNS 182155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182154=20
NYZ000-190200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1961
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022

Areas affected...Southern Jefferson County...northern Lewis
County...and northern Oswego County

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 182154Z - 190200Z

SUMMARY...Snowfall rates 2+ inches per hour will continue through
the afternoon and early evening.

DISCUSSION...The primary band of lake effect snow across Lake
Ontario has intensified on radar with a slight southerly shift in
the last hour. Infrared satellite showed cloud tops cooling around
2-4 degrees with a noticeable increase in reflectivity via the Fort
Drum radar. Surface objective analysis shows maximized surface
convergence along the shoreline from Oswego County north to
Jefferson County. The primary band may continue to make small shifts
southward through the afternoon and early evening with heavier snow
moving further south into Oswego County.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 11/18/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Uq6SsyuOWyqtNRGq8-EF1hKTt4dFf5ywu_ZI0oQuP_ehWDGKYW6HHjy0WFl3bcdKg03oh8hA= 1soFRPGX0q7635mGXk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BUF...

LAT...LON 44037631 44107601 44147539 44097504 44047504 43897518
43727536 43567566 43497580 43457601 43427618 43437634
43457656 43487675 43497681 43517690 43557695 43597696
43667695 43787683 43877667 44037631=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 121017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121016=20
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-121145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1961
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Areas affected...Southeast MO into southern IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 632...

Valid 121016Z - 121145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 632
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging-wind threat will continue to spread
southeastward this morning. WW 632 has been locally expanded
downstream of ongoing storms.

DISCUSSION...A bowing storm cluster is currently moving through the
St. Louis area as of 1015 UTC. This cluster strengthened northwest
of St. Louis, and became rather intense with 60-80 kt radar
velocities noted within 1 km AGL, but preceding outflow and
near-surface stabilization appear to have somewhat limited the
potential for these intense velocities to reach the surface.
However, given the current intensity and organization of this
cluster, wind damage and localized severe gusts will continue to be
a threat in the short term as convection spreads southeastward.=20

Some damaging-wind potential will likely spread south of the initial
bounds of WW 632, and the watch has been locally expanded as a
result. Evolution of the severe threat later this morning remains
somewhat uncertain, though some decrease in storm organization and
attendant damaging-wind potential is possible if outflow continues
to surge well ahead of the strongest convection.

..Dean.. 08/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!747SB83mAjqtmWbeeGk44cx03TFsoEAWGMV3p-lPWpLVCVGTfrYfNzmdUYuxBs4s31p5pRtq5= vKVxGmzwdWlu5Xc-dE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 38549135 38718977 38918869 38728775 38228794 37668823
37618869 37528962 37529025 37739086 37869106 38029116
38199138 38549135=20


=3D =3D =3D
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