• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1955

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Nov 17 07:10:08 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 170709
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170709=20
    NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-171215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1955
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0109 AM CST Thu Nov 17 2022

    Areas affected...Lee of Lake Erie

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 170709Z - 171215Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy snow within a lake effect band in the lee of Lake
    Erie should evolve into multiple bands with more moderating snowfall
    intensity towards 12Z.

    DISCUSSION...A pronounced lake effect snow band has produced reports
    of up to 10 inches of accumulation on Wednesday evening in Erie
    County, NY with rates potentially near 2 in/hr. A minor shortwave
    impulse crossing southwest ON at this time is aiding in a gradual
    southward movement of the band into extreme northwest OH through far
    southwest NY. VWP data from Cleveland and Buffalo have sampled the
    predominant westerly 0-2 km flow ahead of this impulse, while
    northwesterly winds dominate upstream at Detroit and North Webster,
    IN. This change in wind direction should eventually yield a more
    multi-banded structure with moderating intensities as wind
    orientation becomes increasingly perpendicular across the long axis
    of the lake. 00Z HREF members, as well as the 06Z HRRR all support
    this scenario occurring towards daybreak.

    ..Grams.. 11/17/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ZSPtPohy4ymr86WIO8dz1LmUb4bWSxBoKBrMG49mie8y_l6e8Pe8XdpwnCKG4EJhhUx4zbA5= t35Y4R_3CDQkz7zQmA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...CLE...

    LAT...LON 42237971 42437893 42277865 41937907 41727986 41598049
    41628084 41628132 41898176 41958135 42237971=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Nov 17 07:26:31 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 170726
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170726 COR
    NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-171215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1955
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0126 AM CST Thu Nov 17 2022

    Areas affected...Lee of Lake Erie

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 170726Z - 171215Z

    CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHICAL DIRECTION

    SUMMARY...Heavy snow within a lake effect band in the lee of Lake
    Erie should evolve into multiple bands with more moderating snowfall
    intensity towards 12Z.

    DISCUSSION...A pronounced lake effect snow band has produced reports
    of up to 10 inches of accumulation on Wednesday evening in Erie
    County, NY with rates potentially near 2 in/hr. A minor shortwave
    impulse crossing southwest ON at this time is aiding in a gradual
    southward movement of the band into extreme northeast OH through far
    southwest NY. VWP data from Cleveland and Buffalo have sampled the
    predominant westerly 0-2 km flow ahead of this impulse, while
    northwesterly winds dominate upstream at Detroit and North Webster,
    IN. This change in wind direction should eventually yield a more
    multi-banded structure with moderating intensities as wind
    orientation becomes increasingly perpendicular across the long axis
    of the lake. 00Z HREF members, as well as the 06Z HRRR all support
    this scenario occurring towards daybreak.

    ..Grams.. 11/17/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5928kzYdkkBxKJ57wElLZIzTlSrKwssUoxDwUTDigTVMxbJcnalA98PQfZCWJuRmJ6trIOyME= 5iOq1rK5KM9apHYvn4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...CLE...

    LAT...LON 42237971 42437893 42277865 41937907 41727986 41598049
    41628084 41628132 41898176 41958135 42237971=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 11 23:48:35 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 112348
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112348=20
    ARZ000-OKZ000-120145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1955
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0648 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

    Areas affected...parts of northeastern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 112348Z - 120145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated supercell may maintain strength, posing a risk
    for severe hail and wind into the 8-9 PM CDT time frame, before
    weakening.

    DISCUSSION...The supercell migrating across the Bartlesville
    vicinity may have initiated in response to forcing for ascent within
    a zone of weak to modest low/mid-level warm advection spreading
    eastward near/north of the Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity. More
    rapid relatively recent intensification likely has been aided by
    increasing inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized by
    mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg, coincident with sufficient
    weakening of strong mid-level inhibition in the peak late afternoon
    heating. Aided by favorable deep-layer shear beneath 30 kt
    west-northwesterly 500 mb flow, it is possible that this storm may
    persist another hour or two, and continue a southeastward
    propagation to the north through northeast of the Tulsa area, before dissipating as inhibition increases once again with the onset
    boundary-layer cooling.

    ..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/11/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6CT0YP7uqswYVBZ-0h7uQiyUS_vzFnaL46Vojr6kyMtXEv8WX6OzFgVk5IitnbslAp0STXLFG= lv3ehMjWEkLk0r9zk0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...

    LAT...LON 36809565 36709497 36169452 35899503 36209563 36429583
    36629594 36809565=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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