• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1950

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Nov 12 09:31:28 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 120931
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120930=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-121300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1950
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0330 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022

    Areas affected...south-central IL...west-central IN

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 120930Z - 121300Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates (near 1 inch/hour for 1 to 2 hours)
    are expected in a frontogenetic band centered around 650 mb near the
    I-70 corridor through 13 UTC.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a band of moderate to heavy snow
    located from Belleville, IL extending east-northeast to Mattoon, IL
    as of 0930 UTC. Scott AFB in Belleville, IL measured a 1.25
    inch/hour rate between 0730-0830 UTC and heavy snow (1/8 mi
    visibility) was reported through 0855 UTC. The 06 UTC NAM appears
    to be capturing the placement of the snowfall band with
    frontogenesis in the 600-700 mb layer. The frontogenetic
    contribution and the large-scale ascent (DCVA) provided by the
    approach of the mid-level shortwave trough over the MO Ozarks will
    combine to enhance ascent and boost snowfall rates in a mesoscale
    corridor (near I-70). The NAM shifts the frontogenetic forcing into west-central IN during the 1100-1300 UTC period and the rates will coincidentally taper over IL.

    ..Smith.. 11/12/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6f1aGyCZDr2q3KJtEsHogF9n9c1WQ0_Wuw5bCA3w7zd-08NwDHMM18iqYv6Q0J5cn_Mbzu0fv= XDTzgn4Bi4fZ-ej1fI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 38529012 39228929 39768714 39688662 39388648 39218683
    39148782 38888870 38378952 38378987 38529012=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 11 20:43:01 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 112042
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112042=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-112245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1950
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0342 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

    Areas affected...portions of eastern AL and western GA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 626...

    Valid 112042Z - 112245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 626
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to persist across
    WW 626 for the next few hours. Damaging wind gusts and small hail
    will be the primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorm complexes are currently ongoing
    in eastern AL and western GA in WW 626. They have been associated
    with both strong/severe wind (primarily tree and power line damage)
    and quarter-size hail reports. The leading storm -- currently
    located in Stewart County -- featured a robust mesocyclone for
    around an hour before weakening to its current state. The complex in
    its wake also contained multiple weaker low-level mesocyclones early
    in its evolution, likely due to its formation near/along the remnant
    outflow from the morning QLCS (now moving offshore in SC).

    The environment ahead of these thunderstorms remains favorable for
    damaging wind and hail production. The latest VADs from KEOX depict
    modest low-level shear (around 15-20 kts in the 0-3-km layer) amidst
    ample MLCAPE (3000+ J/kg). Bulk shear is expected to remain more
    marginal however, around 15 kts. This should favor a gradually
    congealing system during the next couple of hours. Current
    storm-scale trends support this evolution, depicting spreading
    outflow and cold-pool deficits around 15 degrees F. This should
    yield a gradual transition from a mixed hail/wind threat to more of
    a damaging-wind threat for the next few hours across WW 626.

    ..Flournoy.. 08/11/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_qgJGPOF-c2ScZ4j_tEoWpeMJB-tZHWPdPf21NqvFTrXuKbjaxWgP830yW4T6mXmklKLPinkL= zRJZCqaJxWAkRKBKcQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 32698620 32578523 32188429 31718320 31348303 30898324
    30808406 30968545 31358615 31888638 32418646 32698620=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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