ACUS11 KWNS 111036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111036=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-111130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1942
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0436 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022

Areas affected...Carolina coastal plain and piedmont...south-central
and southeast VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 111036Z - 111130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A new tornado watch will likely be needed for the Carolina
coastal plain and piedmont. The risk for a tornado may extend as
far north as south-central and southeast VA through midday.

DISCUSSION...Model guidance indicates the continued influx of a
moist, maritime tropical airmass into the Carolina Piedmont and southeastern/eastern VA as a maritime cold front advances
north-northwest over southern and eastern VA this morning. Forecast
soundings show a relatively long period of favorable buoyancy and
shear over central and eastern NC today, but this favorable zone
will extend from northeast SC and eventually into southern/eastern
VA. Modest diurnal heating amidst thinning clouds/cloud breaks will
boost MLCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range (locally higher).=20
Enlarged hodographs juxtaposed with pockets of heating and rich
low-level moisture will yield a large area favorable for potential
supercells. A tornado risk will likely accompany any supercell
within the warm sector. If a linear cluster of quasi-discrete
supercells develops in a band later today, a mesoscale area of
locally higher tornado threat could materialize.

..Smith/Edwards.. 11/11/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ga6QiyFsNrVTssd2K8METlb9zeOB47KWmNjD-zvIrBtP00-_dexBSPtd6FNxCxTiz5f9TIZU= xjW2cR_RPBO6KC1BjI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34058086 34858082 36667932 37727767 37517558 35117517
32627949 34058086=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 111246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111246=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-111415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1942
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Areas affected...Parts of western IL into extreme northeast MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 111246Z - 111415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some damaging-wind threat may continue through the
morning.

DISCUSSION...A small but robust bowing storm cluster is moving
through west-central IL at 1245 UTC. This cluster is ongoing within
a low-level warm advection regime, along the eastern fringe of
deeper returning moisture just above the surface (based on recent
RAP analyses). Low-level stability and rather limited MUCAPE
immediately downstream of the bowing segment (as noted in the 12 UTC
ILX sounding) are not favorable for a severe-wind risk, but given
the organization of this cluster and the presence of 60-70 kt at 1-2
km AGL from the DVN and ILX radars, some threat for damaging gusts
may continue to spread southeastward this morning.=20

The evolution of this cluster with time this morning remains
uncertain. Continued moistening from the west and the onset of
diurnal heating may allow for increasing buoyancy downstream, though
the ongoing bowing segment may tend to outpace the favorable
instability. There is some potential for convection trailing
southwest of the main bowing segment to intensify within a zone of
somewhat greater instability. However, with the cluster likely to
remain elevated for much of the morning, the severe-wind threat may
tend to be isolated at best. Watch issuance is currently considered
unlikely, but will become possible if observational trends suggest
an increasing coverage of severe-wind potential.

..Dean/Edwards.. 08/11/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7WnzDhyxiW9-7aj63uSE1v5DxFS52yiSSwprSK31zgF3sdzde8wyPdUNzmpB4F2bpRVea_7k8= 9locTQEO-tMHZXW5i0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41118991 40618878 40088868 39578898 39508964 39509022
39539104 39749146 39969166 40219171 41118991=20


=3D =3D =3D
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