ACUS11 KWNS 101036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101035=20
FLZ000-101300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1932
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022

Areas affected...northeast FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 101035Z - 101300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The initial signs of weakly organized convective structure
are beginning to approach the coast. Trends will be monitored early
this morning for the potential need for a small tornado watch in
northeast FL.

DISCUSSION...KMLB radar imagery is showing more coherent and less brief/transitory convective structure over the shelf waters 30-40 mi
east of the coast as of 530am EST. This convection is on the
northwest tip of an arc of convection (producing lightning)
extending southeastward to the northeast of the Bahamas. The charge
separation resulting in lightning and cooler cloud tops indicate
more vigorous updrafts currently present over the Atlantic but
slowly approaching northeast FL/GA/southern SC. The KJAX VAD shows
an intensifying low-level wind field in the 1-3 km AGL layer from
430am EST to 530am EST. As a greater buoyancy envelope moves up and
inland over the next couple of hours, it is possible a weak/brief
tornado risk develops. However, this conditional risk will depend
on weak supercell structure developing first and likely over the
adjacent waters and moving westward into the immediate coastal
areas.

..Smith/Edwards.. 11/10/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-gWOr4NcQPcskD8lTuPJEWPz2FkNHylyZTgDw7-P5aJxaHe9RnMBDg42I6LsFnO5mZEGj2MER= aqfTBLuJgxmEdXLpJs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX...

LAT...LON 29948017 30018126 29758147 29448144 29288102 29287984
29948017=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 101834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101834=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-102030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1932
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Areas affected...southern and central parts of NJ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 101834Z - 102030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized threat for a weak supercell or two and their
associated hazards will move from west to east across south-central
NJ through 430 pm EDT.

DISCUSSION...A couple of weak supercells have persisted within a
moist/weak unstable airmass across the Mid-Atlantic states early
this afternoon. The KDIX VAD has shown a slight intensification of
flow in the 5-6 km AGL layer in the past hour (+ 5 to 10 kt).=20
Additionally, the low-level hodograph is adequately enlarged to
support at least episodic low-level rotation. The primary hindrance
for a more appreciable severe storm risk continues to be a nearly saturated/poor lapse rate environment in the 3-km to storm top
layer. Nonetheless, the upper 70s temperatures and lower 70s
dewpoints at the surface are contributing to weak buoyancy and a
CAPE profile with characteristics of a tropical cyclone environment
undergoing a tropical to extratropical transition. As a result, a
conditional risk for a brief tornado and/or wind damage will exist
with any robust updraft before moving east of the NJ coast in a
couple of hours.

..Smith/Guyer.. 08/10/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6K0xxdc5EzLvxkIAi1p8r85_vSgQnDukFpTAct1VFpVd6JPH_DK3scE7JiE6RG_WmY2-018fE= wUZCbBFJPhCltdxfQ4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...

LAT...LON 39977508 40247404 39857407 39587425 39467478 39567523
39977508=20


=3D =3D =3D
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