• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1930

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Nov 10 05:01:10 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 100501
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100500=20
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-101100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1930
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1100 PM CST Wed Nov 09 2022

    Areas affected...Far Southeast Montana...Southern North
    Dakota...Northern South Dakota

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 100500Z - 101100Z

    SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to reach one inch per hour
    from far southeast Montana eastward across much of southern North
    Dakota and southward into parts of northwest and north-central South
    Dakota. A mix of sleet, snow and freezing rain will be possible
    across parts of southeast North Dakota and northeast South Dakota.

    DISCUSSION...An upper-level low over the northern Rockies will move
    eastward into the northern High Plains tonight. Mid-level heights
    will remain diffluent ahead of the system in the northern Plains, as
    a 75 to 90 knot jet noses into the region from the southwest. As the upper-level low approaches, isentropic lift will increase across
    parts of the northern Plains. In response, precipitation in the form
    of moderate to heavy snow will develop and move northeastward across
    the region. The heaviest snowfall is expected to develop just ahead
    of the upper-level low track in the left exit region of the
    mid-level jet, where lift will become maximized between 09Z and 12Z.
    Snowfall rates are expected to reach or exceed one inch per hour in
    some areas during this timeframe.

    Further to the east, RAP forecast soundings from Aberdeen to Fargo
    show a warm nose in the 700 to 800 mb layer, with surface
    temperatures in the mid to upper 20s F. Showers that form within
    this temperature profile should be associated with mixed
    precipitation. Sleet, freezing rain and snow will be possible,
    especially later tonight as the band of stronger lift moves through.

    ..Broyles/Grams.. 11/10/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Z_BMnDMVAZe45KaXCNuya5UP4zG3sYA9aAfKHXMkFMoPbGWU2MBUZZvlbVOnYvFwAKc5bsup= iF8Liurzb6KA7EAZbo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 44850232 44690126 44789943 45019834 45439726 45889685
    46589655 47199656 47589687 47659718 47649799 47499996
    47260213 47020398 46790493 46370503 45990490 45670453
    45270375 45000291 44850232=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 10 05:59:48 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 100559
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100559=20
    TNZ000-ALZ000-100730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1930
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

    Areas affected...Southern middle TN into north AL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 100559Z - 100730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Some damaging-wind threat will persist overnight as storms
    spread eastward. Downstream watch issuance is possible if there is
    any uptick in storm intensity/organization.

    DISCUSSION...A small bowing segment has evolved within a larger
    thunderstorm cluster across western TN. The downstream environment
    remains favorable for organized convection, with rather strong
    low/midlevel flow and favorable deep-layer shear noted on regional
    VWPs, along with moderate buoyancy. A low-level temperature
    inversion and a related tendency for convection to be somewhat
    elevated has limited the damaging-wind threat thus far, and may
    continue to do so as storms generally stay north of an outflow
    boundary across central AL. However, any uptick in intensity with
    the bowing segment and/or the trailing convection to the southwest
    may be accompanied by an increasing risk for damaging gusts
    overnight. Short-term trends will continue to be monitored for
    possible watch issuance.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 08/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_UKAllHi90f3Q_rK3uwN92neCGJkGebbGwRiI6NY3S_fJa_imUs68bJbnoafPJJPTVE2STM1D= JHIDDSxPk8zQ3E1N1U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

    LAT...LON 35768805 35838693 35768576 34858569 34188581 33968628
    33878668 33888721 33988785 34378809 34758801 35768805=20


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