ACUS11 KWNS 100431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100430=20
FLZ000-100530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1929
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 PM CST Wed Nov 09 2022

Areas affected...east coast of Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 100430Z - 100530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some tornado threat will increase along the Florida coast
after midnight. Spatial extent of the tornado threat should be
limited, which may mitigate near term watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...An area of convection has been ongoing within the outer
bands on the northwest side of Hurricane Nicole this evening. This
band will gradually shift inland just north of the Space Coast as
Nicole makes landfall in the early hours of Thursday morning. As
stronger easterly flow moves inland after midnight, hodographs will
become more elongated with clockwise curvature and 0-1 km storm
relative helicity forecast around 300 m2/s2. Increasing easterly
flow will also help usher in higher CAPE values that are currently
located offshore. This environment will favor development of a few
transient supercells across the coastal zones. The most favorable
corridor for increasing tornado threat will be largely tied to areas
along the Florida coast where the best overlap of shear and
instability is expected.

..Thornton/Grams.. 11/10/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6cKYBDai2BholeWxQFWLMkGlEKkDXuYVtpS7_BqX-eTl374lSTeUuVwo0CKZjgV-cCeNSDNEY= TitZdACR3OpRoW6Z0k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX...

LAT...LON 27507962 28337961 28917958 29417980 29908008 30258033
30588087 30528115 30448134 30348156 30058175 29618174
28618146 28218127 27688110 27228072 27138050 27068004
27107991 27227981 27407964 27507962=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 100430
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100430=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-100630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1929
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

Areas affected...Mid-South

Concerning...Tornado Watch 621...622...

Valid 100430Z - 100630Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 621, 622 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms will spread across western TN
and northern MS early this morning.

DISCUSSION...Convection that initiated over the Ozarks early this
evening has grown upscale and an MCS is now propagating southeast
across the Mid-South. An MCV may be forming over the Bootheel of MO
which supports the overall organization of this complex. Latest
radar data suggests earlier discrete updrafts have mostly merged
into the larger complex and the primary storm mode may remain an MCS
or organized clusters the rest of tonight. While wind will likely be
the primary severe threat, damaging winds have not been that common
with this complex and winds have recently only gusted to 37kt at JBR
when the leading edge of the MCS passed through Jonesboro AR.

..Darrow.. 08/10/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8nPsfCs5RR2MDFS8lcBja6x_AlYfP1Qa6xhLLGBWLXmN09JDIAFYE6_YaFeb-Cxtnt1ww6gpa= _cI7lMg_9OPCiF8kvU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 36528962 36228804 35608775 34958879 34829037 35329064
35828985 36528962=20


=3D =3D =3D
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