• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1925

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Nov 5 02:49:03 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 050248
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050248=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-050445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1925
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0948 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

    Areas affected...much of northeastern Arkansas into southeastern
    Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 050248Z - 050445Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...At least some risk for tornadoes and/or locally damaging
    wind gusts may continue with the organized convective system as it
    spreads toward the Mississippi River through Midnight-2 AM CDT.=20
    However, it is not certain that a new severe weather watch will be
    needed east of the ongoing watches.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually grown upscale into an
    organizing convective system with embedded mesocyclones and several
    larger evolving lower/mid tropospheric cyclonic circulations.=20
    Activity is closely aligned with the 50+ kt southerly 850 mb jet
    core (where low-level hodographs are maximized), which is forecast
    to intensify further while shifting north-northeastward toward the
    Mississippi Valley through 05-07Z, as a surface frontal low deepens
    across southwest through central Missouri. However, as this occurs,
    the Rapid Refresh suggests that a trailing southeastward surging
    cold front will increasingly cut off the the northward return of
    warm/moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. As inflow into the
    convective system becomes progressively less unstable to stable, the
    risk for tornadoes and/or localized damaging wind gusts will
    gradually diminish as convection spreads east of Tornado Watch 561
    and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 562. However, it may not become
    completely negligible for another several hours.

    ..Kerr/Guyer.. 11/05/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6-Z6tLc7MFuRctZhoSNSh7OvSP993tKh1ZqBJ7Zg_WNOsY9BjYqNL9j_92wpWkMjGNh5jYHcB= vRKo3JI5C7oIXQKYH4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

    LAT...LON 35169245 36639220 37599185 38129074 37639011 35989019
    34819075 34289116 34449204 35169245=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 10 00:36:43 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 100036
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100035=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-100230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1925
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0735 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

    Areas affected...North Texas to far southern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 619...

    Valid 100035Z - 100230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 619
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe winds continues across north Texas
    into far southern Oklahoma. However, this threat will gradually
    diminish heading into the evening hours.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, initial thunderstorms
    developing along a surface trough have shown signs of weakening with
    an average lifespan of around 1-2 hours. Strong winds up to 56 mph
    have been reported as these storms collapsed, but a few instances of
    wind damage have been noted. While the initial cells continue to
    weaken, additional cells are developing along the boundary with
    signs of steady intensification per GOES IR imagery and lightning
    trends. It remains unclear how many additional cells will develop,
    but ongoing/developing storms will slowly migrate east where
    dewpoint depressions are still 40-50 F, indicating that low-level
    thermodynamic profiles remain conducive for strong to severe
    downburst winds. This threat will slowly wane heading into the late
    evening hours as nocturnal cooling steadily increasing low-level
    inhibition. This will relegate the potential for damaging/severe
    downburst winds to the strongest/tallest cells that may have
    sufficient precipitation loading and evaporative cooling to punch
    through the low-level stable layer.

    ..Moore.. 08/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!61EaSQbT7h5Ob6ZLBXPrG1rillGGavEJWuT8fquZhxSHG55e8FojT_mRdvdaJCHOTH2tWkc4O= CYfdC-F83TfV_ESR04$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 33289605 33109643 32939708 32879782 33039821 33429828
    33669800 34239642 34169612 34049576 33699578 33289605=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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