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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1921

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Nov 4 23:27:10 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 042327
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042326=20
    TXZ000-050130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1921
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0626 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

    Areas affected...south central/southern Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 042326Z - 050130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may gradually develop across the region
    through 8-9 PM CDT. The evolution of isolated supercell structures
    posing a risk for severe hail and locally strong gusts appears
    briefly possible, before a cold frontal passage weakens storms later
    this evening. It is not clear a severe weather watch will be
    needed, but trends are being monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg appears
    to have developed in a narrow corridor along a slow moving dryline
    across south central Texas, with deepening convective development
    evident near/north of San Antonio into the Austin vicinity.=20
    Although stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent downstream of the
    vigorous short wave trough, now beginning to pivot northeast of the
    Texas South Plain, will generally continue to pass to the northeast
    of the region, associated mid-level cooling is weakening mid-level
    inhibition east of the Hill Country.=20=20

    Based on current trends and model output, at least isolated vigorous thunderstorm development appears possible within the next hour or
    two. Although low-level wind fields are tending to veer and weaken,
    deep-layer shear beneath 50+ kt southwesterly mid-level flow is
    strong and supportive of supercells which could pose a risk for
    severe hail and wind. However, this risk may remain relatively
    isolated and short-lived, as a pair of cold fronts quickly advance southeastward toward the Texas coastal plain through 03-04Z, and
    tend to undercut the convective development.

    ..Kerr/Guyer.. 11/04/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4lc5uyuV_mGv2YREJJkhmi0nBgTBQF20cxR9rwRk5Dj-hy3EMOvIEtCTq4aSjzny2BuzzaYde= zLJZlK5CP1xfgyG1Ug$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 29399842 30109804 30399761 29739685 29089696 28539750
    28569827 29399842=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 9 21:00:13 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 092100
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092059=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-092330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1921
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0359 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

    Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Montana...southern
    North Dakota...northern South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 092059Z - 092330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...An instance or two of severe hail or wind may occur later
    this afternoon into early evening. The severe threat should remain
    isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Agitated cumulus, along with sparse areas of convective initiation, are underway ahead of a diffuse trailing cold front from
    extreme eastern MT, eastward along the SD/ND border. Ample heating
    has mixed the boundary layer, with observed upper 70s/low 80s F
    temperatures amid low 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 8.5+ C/km
    boundary-layer lapse rates (20Z mesoanalysis). Given the dry
    boundary layer, RAP forecast soundings depict the 1000 J/kg MLCAPE
    (currently in place) distributed in tall/skinny profiles, though
    unidirectional speed shear is in place. As such, a few multicells or
    transient supercells may become sustained and support an instance or
    two of severe hail/wind. Since the severe threat should be sparse, a
    WW issuance is not expected.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/09/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_oF9Uz_MjQaFjishONTR2y6MGO1Ls19moBdXPF2S-8tqCHPk5yB2g0Zy6lLt0gLWwpNLlxirG= jcYk7ZUYQ6XsBr0FVg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 47890494 47620358 46419934 46079728 45589689 45069696
    44809822 44880039 45290175 46080364 46640481 47450509
    47890494=20


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