• Re: Crossings vs. encount

    From Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to JEFF THIELE on Tue Oct 11 15:58:00 2022
    The difference is that the Border Patrol says that "encounters" are events, not people. If one attempts to use the "encounter" number as a "people" number, then one would arrive at an incorrect estimate of the number of people trying to cross the border.

    OK, so if they encountered illegal Jeff and illegal Mike and lllegal Aaron together at the same time, that is one encounter with a group of three people? That does make sense.

    The only way they'd not have a close corelation would be if the illegals are indeed crossing and not encountering an agent in large enough numbers
    for it to matter. Aaron and others do think this is true, and I may be wrong, but I am thinking that you don't. So, if they are wrong, the numbers should be nearly the same.

    Aaron is potentially confusing the number of encounters (events) with the number of migrants (people) attempting to cross the border.

    Sounds like maybe so. Sounds like the number of encounters should be
    less-than the number of migrants.


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  • From Jeff Thiele@1:387/26 to Mike Powell on Tue Oct 11 16:07:49 2022
    On 11 Oct 2022, Mike Powell said the following...
    The difference is that the Border Patrol says that "encounters" are even not people. If one attempts to use the "encounter" number as a "people" number, then one would arrive at an incorrect estimate of the number of people trying to cross the border.
    OK, so if they encountered illegal Jeff and illegal Mike and lllegal
    Aaron together at the same time, that is one encounter with a group of three people? That does make sense.

    My understanding is that that would be three encounters. And if they met us again the next day that would be another three encounters. So, six encounters in two days. But if someone were to look at that and misinterpret encounters
    as people, they might think that six encounters over three days means that
    six different people tried to enter the country, which is not true.

    The only way they'd not have a close corelation would be if the ill are indeed crossing and not encountering an agent in large enough numbers
    for it to matter. Aaron and others do think this is true, and I ma wrong, but I am thinking that you don't. So, if they are wrong, th numbers should be nearly the same.
    Aaron is potentially confusing the number of encounters (events) with th number of migrants (people) attempting to cross the border.
    Sounds like maybe so. Sounds like the number of encounters should be less-than the number of migrants.

    If any of the migrants attempt to enter more than once, yes.

    Jeff.

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  • From Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to JEFF THIELE on Wed Oct 12 16:29:00 2022
    OK, so if they encountered illegal Jeff and illegal Mike and lllegal Aaron together at the same time, that is one encounter with a group of three people? That does make sense.

    My understanding is that that would be three encounters. And if they met us again the next day that would be another three encounters. So, six encounters in two days. But if someone were to look at that and misinterpret encounters as people, they might think that six encounters over three days means that six different people tried to enter the country, which is not true.

    If the same migrant enters more than once, I am not sure the distinction
    should matter that much. Either way, it is multiple encounters with a
    person, and each encounter costs something.


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  • From Jeff Thiele@1:387/26 to Mike Powell on Wed Oct 12 18:21:35 2022
    On 12 Oct 2022, Mike Powell said the following...
    OK, so if they encountered illegal Jeff and illegal Mike and lllega Aaron together at the same time, that is one encounter with a group three people? That does make sense.
    My understanding is that that would be three encounters. And if they met again the next day that would be another three encounters. So, six encou in two days. But if someone were to look at that and misinterpret encoun as people, they might think that six encounters over three days means th six different people tried to enter the country, which is not true.
    If the same migrant enters more than once, I am not sure the distinction should matter that much. Either way, it is multiple encounters with a person, and each encounter costs something.

    It matters because if the encounter the same person 365 times a year, that's not 365 different people trying to enter the country.

    Jeff.

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  • From Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to JEFF THIELE on Thu Oct 13 16:41:00 2022
    If the same migrant enters more than once, I am not sure the distinction should matter that much. Either way, it is multiple encounters with a person, and each encounter costs something.

    It matters because if the encounter the same person 365 times a year, that's not 365 different people trying to enter the country.

    It is 365 entries, which means something is wrong. Only counting people
    once who enter multiple times is a way to make the problem sound like it is
    not as bad as it really is.


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  • From Jeff Thiele@1:387/26 to Mike Powell on Thu Oct 13 16:28:30 2022
    On 13 Oct 2022, Mike Powell said the following...
    If the same migrant enters more than once, I am not sure the distin should matter that much. Either way, it is multiple encounters wit person, and each encounter costs something.
    It matters because if the encounter the same person 365 times a year, th not 365 different people trying to enter the country.
    It is 365 entries, which means something is wrong. Only counting people once who enter multiple times is a way to make the problem sound like it is not as bad as it really is.

    Or, alternatively, counting the same person multiple times is a way to make
    the problem is worse than it really is. Are there 365 people storming the border, or is it just that one guy again?

    Jeff.

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  • From Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to JEFF THIELE on Fri Oct 14 08:37:00 2022
    It is 365 entries, which means something is wrong. Only counting people once who enter multiple times is a way to make the problem sound like it is not as bad as it really is.

    Or, alternatively, counting the same person multiple times is a way to make the problem is worse than it really is. Are there 365 people storming the border, or is it just that one guy again?

    If the problem really was just one person, you'd be correct. In the
    volumes we have in reality, those multiple encounters are a symptom of a much larger problem.


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  • From Jeff Thiele@1:387/26 to Mike Powell on Fri Oct 14 08:08:43 2022
    On 14 Oct 2022, Mike Powell said the following...
    It is 365 entries, which means something is wrong. Only counting p once who enter multiple times is a way to make the problem sound li is not as bad as it really is.
    Or, alternatively, counting the same person multiple times is a way to m the problem is worse than it really is. Are there 365 people storming th border, or is it just that one guy again?
    If the problem really was just one person, you'd be correct. In the volumes we have in reality, those multiple encounters are a symptom of a much larger problem.

    How much larger? How do we quantify the problem? Well, for starters, understanding what the metrics we have actually mean might help.

    Jeff.

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