Feedback loops make climate action even more urgent, scientists say
Date:
February 17, 2023
Source:
Oregon State University
Summary:
Researchers have identified 26 global warming accelerators known
as amplifying feedback loops that the researchers say aren't
being properly included in climate models. They note that the
findings add urgency to the need to respond to the climate crisis
and provide a roadmap for policymakers aiming to avert the most
severe consequences of a warming planet.
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FULL STORY ==========================================================================
An international collaboration led by Oregon State University scientists
has identified 27 global warming accelerators known as amplifying feedback loops, including some that the researchers say may not be fully accounted
for in climate models.
==========================================================================
They note that the findings, published today in the journal One Earth,
add urgency to the need to respond to the climate crisis and provide a
roadmap for policymakers aiming to avert the most severe consequences
of a warming planet.
In climate science, amplifying feedback loops are situations where a
climate- caused alteration can trigger a process that causes even more
warming, which in turn intensifies the alteration. An example would be
warming in the Arctic, leading to melting sea ice, which results in
further warming because sea water absorbs rather than reflects solar
radiation.
OSU College of Forestry postdoctoral scholar Christopher Wolf and
distinguished professor William Ripple led the study, which in all looked
at 41 climate change feedbacks.
"Many of the feedback loops we examined significantly increase warming
because of their connection to greenhouse gas emissions," Wolf said. "To
the best of our knowledge, this is the most extensive list available
of climate feedback loops, and not all of them are fully considered in
climate models. What's urgently needed is more research and modeling
and an accelerated cutback of emissions." The paper makes two calls to
action for "immediate and massive" emissions reductions:
* Minimize short-term warming given that "climate disasters" in the
form of
wildfires, coastal flooding, permafrost thaw, intense storms and
other extreme weather are already occurring.
* Mitigate the possible major threats looming from climate tipping
points
that are drawing ever-closer due to the prevalence of the many
amplifying feedback loops. A tipping point is a threshold after
which a change in a component of the climate system becomes
self-perpetuating.
"Transformative, socially just changes in global energy and
transportation, short-lived air pollution, food production, nature
preservation and the international economy, together with population
policies based on education and equality, are needed to meet these
challenges in both the short and long term," Ripple said. "It's too late
to fully prevent the pain of climate change, but if we take meaningful
steps soon while prioritizing human basic needs and social justice, it
could still be possible to limit the harm." Ripple, Wolf and co-authors
from the University of Exeter, the Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impact Research, the Woodwell Climate Research Center and Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates considered both biological and physical feedbacks. Biological feedbacks include forest dieback, soil carbon loss
and wildfire; physical feedbacks involve changes such as reduced snow
cover, increased Antarctic rainfall and shrinking arctic sea ice.
Even comparatively modest warming is expected to heighten the likelihood
that the Earth will cross various tipping points, the researchers say,
causing big changes in the planet's climate system and potentially strengthening the amplifying feedbacks.
"Climate models may be underestimating the acceleration in global
temperature change because they aren't fully considering this large and
related set of amplifying feedback loops," Wolf said. "The accuracy
of climate models is crucial as they help guide mitigation efforts
by telling policymakers about the expected effects of human-caused
greenhouse gas emissions. While recent climate models do a much
better job of incorporating diverse feedback loops, more progress is
needed." Emissions have risen substantially over the last century, the researchers note, despite several decades of warnings that they should
be significantly curbed.
The scientists say interactions among feedback loops could cause a
permanent shift away from the Earth's current climate state to one that threatens the survival of many humans and other life forms.
"In the worst case, if amplifying feedbacks are strong enough, the
result is likely tragic climate change that's moved beyond anything
humans can control," Ripple said. "We need a rapid transition toward
integrated Earth system science because the climate can only be fully understood by considering the functioning and state of all Earth systems together. This will require large-scale collaboration, and the result
would provide better information for policymakers." In addition to the
27 amplifying climate feedbacks the scientists studied were seven that are characterized as dampening -- they act to stabilize the climate system. An example is carbon dioxide fertilization, where rising concentrations of atmospheric CO2 lead to increasing carbon uptake by vegetation.
The effects of the remaining seven feedbacks, including increased
atmospheric dust and reduced ocean stability, are not yet known.
The paper in One Earth has a corresponding website (
https:// scientistswarning.forestry.oregonstate.edu/climate_feedbacks) that
features more about climate feedback loops, including infographics and interactive animations.
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========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by Oregon_State_University. Original
written by Steve Lundeberg. Note: Content may be edited for style
and length.
========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. William J. Ripple, Christopher Wolf, Timothy M. Lenton, Jillian
W. Gregg,
Susan M. Natali, Philip B. Duffy, Johan Rockstro"m, Hans Joachim
Schellnhuber. Many risky feedback loops amplify the need for climate
action. One Earth, 2023; 6 (2): 86 DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.01.004 ==========================================================================
Link to news story:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/02/230217120546.htm
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