• Feedback loops make climate action even

    From ScienceDaily@1:317/3 to All on Fri Feb 17 21:30:24 2023
    Feedback loops make climate action even more urgent, scientists say


    Date:
    February 17, 2023
    Source:
    Oregon State University
    Summary:
    Researchers have identified 26 global warming accelerators known
    as amplifying feedback loops that the researchers say aren't
    being properly included in climate models. They note that the
    findings add urgency to the need to respond to the climate crisis
    and provide a roadmap for policymakers aiming to avert the most
    severe consequences of a warming planet.


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    FULL STORY ==========================================================================
    An international collaboration led by Oregon State University scientists
    has identified 27 global warming accelerators known as amplifying feedback loops, including some that the researchers say may not be fully accounted
    for in climate models.


    ==========================================================================
    They note that the findings, published today in the journal One Earth,
    add urgency to the need to respond to the climate crisis and provide a
    roadmap for policymakers aiming to avert the most severe consequences
    of a warming planet.

    In climate science, amplifying feedback loops are situations where a
    climate- caused alteration can trigger a process that causes even more
    warming, which in turn intensifies the alteration. An example would be
    warming in the Arctic, leading to melting sea ice, which results in
    further warming because sea water absorbs rather than reflects solar
    radiation.

    OSU College of Forestry postdoctoral scholar Christopher Wolf and
    distinguished professor William Ripple led the study, which in all looked
    at 41 climate change feedbacks.

    "Many of the feedback loops we examined significantly increase warming
    because of their connection to greenhouse gas emissions," Wolf said. "To
    the best of our knowledge, this is the most extensive list available
    of climate feedback loops, and not all of them are fully considered in
    climate models. What's urgently needed is more research and modeling
    and an accelerated cutback of emissions." The paper makes two calls to
    action for "immediate and massive" emissions reductions:
    * Minimize short-term warming given that "climate disasters" in the
    form of
    wildfires, coastal flooding, permafrost thaw, intense storms and
    other extreme weather are already occurring.

    * Mitigate the possible major threats looming from climate tipping
    points
    that are drawing ever-closer due to the prevalence of the many
    amplifying feedback loops. A tipping point is a threshold after
    which a change in a component of the climate system becomes
    self-perpetuating.

    "Transformative, socially just changes in global energy and
    transportation, short-lived air pollution, food production, nature
    preservation and the international economy, together with population
    policies based on education and equality, are needed to meet these
    challenges in both the short and long term," Ripple said. "It's too late
    to fully prevent the pain of climate change, but if we take meaningful
    steps soon while prioritizing human basic needs and social justice, it
    could still be possible to limit the harm." Ripple, Wolf and co-authors
    from the University of Exeter, the Potsdam Institute for Climate
    Impact Research, the Woodwell Climate Research Center and Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates considered both biological and physical feedbacks. Biological feedbacks include forest dieback, soil carbon loss
    and wildfire; physical feedbacks involve changes such as reduced snow
    cover, increased Antarctic rainfall and shrinking arctic sea ice.

    Even comparatively modest warming is expected to heighten the likelihood
    that the Earth will cross various tipping points, the researchers say,
    causing big changes in the planet's climate system and potentially strengthening the amplifying feedbacks.

    "Climate models may be underestimating the acceleration in global
    temperature change because they aren't fully considering this large and
    related set of amplifying feedback loops," Wolf said. "The accuracy
    of climate models is crucial as they help guide mitigation efforts
    by telling policymakers about the expected effects of human-caused
    greenhouse gas emissions. While recent climate models do a much
    better job of incorporating diverse feedback loops, more progress is
    needed." Emissions have risen substantially over the last century, the researchers note, despite several decades of warnings that they should
    be significantly curbed.

    The scientists say interactions among feedback loops could cause a
    permanent shift away from the Earth's current climate state to one that threatens the survival of many humans and other life forms.

    "In the worst case, if amplifying feedbacks are strong enough, the
    result is likely tragic climate change that's moved beyond anything
    humans can control," Ripple said. "We need a rapid transition toward
    integrated Earth system science because the climate can only be fully understood by considering the functioning and state of all Earth systems together. This will require large-scale collaboration, and the result
    would provide better information for policymakers." In addition to the
    27 amplifying climate feedbacks the scientists studied were seven that are characterized as dampening -- they act to stabilize the climate system. An example is carbon dioxide fertilization, where rising concentrations of atmospheric CO2 lead to increasing carbon uptake by vegetation.

    The effects of the remaining seven feedbacks, including increased
    atmospheric dust and reduced ocean stability, are not yet known.

    The paper in One Earth has a corresponding website (https:// scientistswarning.forestry.oregonstate.edu/climate_feedbacks) that
    features more about climate feedback loops, including infographics and interactive animations.

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    ========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by Oregon_State_University. Original
    written by Steve Lundeberg. Note: Content may be edited for style
    and length.


    ========================================================================== Journal Reference:
    1. William J. Ripple, Christopher Wolf, Timothy M. Lenton, Jillian
    W. Gregg,
    Susan M. Natali, Philip B. Duffy, Johan Rockstro"m, Hans Joachim
    Schellnhuber. Many risky feedback loops amplify the need for climate
    action. One Earth, 2023; 6 (2): 86 DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.01.004 ==========================================================================

    Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/02/230217120546.htm

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