• New algorithm will improve bowel-cancer

    From ScienceDaily@1:317/3 to All on Wed Mar 30 22:30:44 2022
    New algorithm will improve bowel-cancer patient care

    Date:
    March 30, 2022
    Source:
    University of Portsmouth
    Summary:
    An algorithm which can predict how long a patient might spend in
    hospital if they're diagnosed with bowel cancer could save the
    money and help patients feel better prepared.



    FULL STORY ==========================================================================
    An algorithm which can predict how long a patient might spend in hospital
    if they're diagnosed with bowel cancer could save the NHS millions of
    pounds and help patients feel better prepared.


    ========================================================================== Experts from the University of Portsmouth and the Portsmouth Hospitals University NHS Trust have used artificial intelligence and data analytics
    to predict the length of hospital stay for bowel cancer patients,
    whether they will be readmitted after surgery, and their likelihood of
    death over a one or three-month period.

    The intelligent model will allow healthcare providers to design the best patient care and prioritise resources.

    Bowel cancer is one of the most common types of cancer diagnosed in the
    UK, with more than 42,000 people diagnosed every year.

    Professor of Intelligent Systems, Adrian Hopgood, from the University
    of Portsmouth, is one of the lead authors on the new paper. He said:
    "It is estimated that by 2035 there will be around 2.4 million new cases
    of bowel cancer annually worldwide. This is a staggering figure and one
    that can't be ignored. We need to act now to improve patient outcomes.

    "This technology can give patients insight into what they're likely to experience. They can not only be given a good indication of what their
    longer- term prognosis is, but also what to expect in the shorter term.



    ==========================================================================
    "If a patient isn't expecting to find themselves in hospital for two
    weeks and suddenly they are, that can be quite distressing. However,
    if they have a predicted length of stay, they have useful information
    to help them prepare.

    "Or indeed if a patient is given a prognosis that isn't good or they
    have other illnesses, they might decide they don't want a surgical
    option resulting in a long stay in hospital." Bowel cancer (also known a colorectal cancer) affects the large bowel, which is made up of the colon
    and rectum. The cost of diagnosing and treating patients is significant
    and the economic impact on healthcare systems is immense.

    The study used data taken from a database of over 4,000 bowel cancer
    patients who underwent surgery between 2003 and 2019. It looked at 47
    different variables including age, weight, fitness, surgical approaches,
    and mortality.

    The insights of consultant surgeon Jim Khan and his colleagues Samuel
    Stefan and Karen Flashman were complemented by the analytical expertise
    of Dr Shamsul Masum, under Professor Hopgood's direction.

    Professor Hopgood said: "We used a full set of data that included
    the 47 variables, but also predicted outcomes with just some of
    the most significant ones and found the two approaches showed very
    little difference. This is useful in itself because it shows that the
    algorithm is just as effective using a streamlined set of variables."
    The technology could be rolled out straightaway in principle, but would
    need to be approved for use in a clinical setting. However, Professor
    Hopgood is keen to work with an even bigger dataset to improve the
    accuracy of predictions, which is already above 80 per cent.

    "If we could attract funding, we would love to get together with other
    bowel cancer centres so we have access to even bigger datasets. With
    machine learning, the simple rule is the more data the better," he said.

    "Everyone I've spoken to in the health domain thinks that artificial intelligence will help them do a better job and we hope this research
    will do exactly that -- by providing more accurate predictions, the
    health service can allocate the best resources to each patient and
    improve patient care."

    ========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_Portsmouth. Note:
    Content may be edited for style and length.


    ========================================================================== Journal Reference:
    1. Shamsul Masum, Adrian Hopgood, Samuel Stefan, Karen Flashman,
    Jim Khan.

    Data analytics and artificial intelligence in predicting length
    of stay, readmission, and mortality: a population-based study of
    surgical management of colorectal cancer. Discover Oncology, 2022;
    13 (1) DOI: 10.1007/s12672-022-00472-7 ==========================================================================

    Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/03/220330103218.htm

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